Scientific discovery is the key driver for technological and cultural innovation, and a foundational pillar of society. 

Despite the extraordinary impact science has on our life, little is known about the patterns that lead to scientific excellence. Is the success of a particular work predictable? Can future individual performance be predicted? Are scientific discoveries more likely in certain countries and/or institutions?

By combining the tools of statistical physics and information science we plan to uncover the predictability and the limits of predictability of scientific success. Ourfocus is on scientific performance captured at increasing levels of complexity: (i) individual publications, (ii) scientists’ careers, (iii) research institutions.The final goal of our research is to provide theory and tools of potential utility to policy making, from funding decisions to discovering scientific talent.

TEAM 

László Barabási
Director, CCNR

Yifang Ma
Researcher, CCNR​

Roberta Sinatra
Researcher, CCNR​

Michael Szell
Researcher, CCNR​

Alex Vespignani
Director, MOBS Lab

Matteo Chinazzi
Researcher, MOBS Lab

Junming Huang
Researcher, CCNR​

Yasamin Khorramzadeh
Researcher, CCNR​

Kaiyuan Sun
Researcher, MOBS Lab

PAPERS

​​Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact

​Roberta Sinatra, Dashun Wang, Pierre Deville, Chaoming Song, Albert-László Barabási
Science, Vol. 354, Issue 6312 (2016)

doi:10.1126/science.aaf5239
[pdf] [supp. information] [interactive visualization] [Nature video]

Featured in: ​New York Times, Science News, Nature News, The Scientist, Wired, Chronicle of Higher Education, Scientific American, Forbes
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​View full list of press coverage here.
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Research funding goes to rich clubs

Michael Szell and Roberta Sinatra
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112 48, 14749–14750 (2015)

​doi:10.1038/nphys3494
[pdf]
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A century of physics

Roberta Sinatra, Pierre Deville, Michael Szell, Dashun Wang, Albert-László Barabási
Nature Physics, 11 791 (2015)

​doi:10.1038/nphys3494
[pdf] [cover]
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Interactive visualization
by Kim Albrecht et al:
Click to view
Nature Video 
by Mauro Martino at al:
Click to view
Nature Physics cover
October 2015

PRESENTATIONS

Science of Science: The Fundamentals of Predictability of Scientific Success

Roberta Sinatra, Alessandro Vespignani, Albert-László Barabási
[pdf]