Predictability of Scientific Success
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PREDICTABILITY OF
SCIENTIFIC SUCCESS
Developing measures and models that offer actionable information
towards a quantitative evaluation and prediction of scientific success
towards a quantitative evaluation and prediction of scientific success
Scientific discovery is the key driver for technological and cultural innovation, and a foundational pillar of society.Despite the extraordinary impact science has on our life, little is known about the patterns that lead to scientific excellence. Is the success of a particular work predictable? Can future individual performance be predicted? Are scientific discoveries more likely in certain countries and/or institutions?
By combining the tools of statistical physics and information science we plan to uncover the predictability and the limits of predictability of scientific success. Ourfocus is on scientific performance captured at increasing levels of complexity: (i) individual publications, (ii) scientists’ careers, (iii) research institutions.The final goal of our research is to provide theory and tools of potential utility to policy making, from funding decisions to discovering scientific talent. |
New publication in Science: Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact |
PAPERS
Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impactRoberta Sinatra, Dashun Wang, Pierre Deville, Chaoming Song, Albert-László Barabási
Science, Vol. 354, Issue 6312 (2016) doi:10.1126/science.aaf5239 [pdf] [supp. information] [interactive visualization] [Nature video] Featured in: New York Times, Science News, Nature News, The Scientist, Wired, Chronicle of Higher Education, Scientific American, Forbes View full list of press coverage here. Research funding goes to rich clubsMichael Szell and Roberta Sinatra
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112 48, 14749–14750 (2015) doi:10.1038/nphys3494 [pdf] A century of physicsRoberta Sinatra, Pierre Deville, Michael Szell, Dashun Wang, Albert-László Barabási
Nature Physics, 11 791 (2015) doi:10.1038/nphys3494 [pdf] [cover] |
Interactive visualization
by Kim Albrecht et al: Click to view
Nature Video
by Mauro Martino at al: Click to view
Nature Physics cover
October 2015
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PRESENTATIONS
Science of Science: The Fundamentals of Predictability of Scientific Success
Roberta Sinatra, Alessandro Vespignani, Albert-László Barabási
[pdf]
[pdf]
We acknowledge funding from AFOSR grant FA9550-15-1-0077
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