Predictability of Scientific Success
Scientific discovery is the key driver for technological and cultural innovation, and a foundational pillar of society.
Despite the extraordinary impact science has on our life, little is known about the patterns that lead to scientific excellence. Is the success of a particular work predictable? Can future individual performance be predicted? Are scientific discoveries more likely in certain countries and/or institutions?
By combining the tools of statistical physics and information science we plan to uncover the predictability and the limits of predictability of scientific success. Ourfocus is on scientific performance captured at increasing levels of complexity: (i) individual publications, (ii) scientists’ careers, (iii) research institutions.The final goal of our research is to provide theory and tools of potential utility to policy making, from funding decisions to discovering scientific talent.