Scientific discovery is the key driver for technological and cultural innovation, and a foundational pillar of society. 

Despite the extraordinary impact science has on our life, little is known about the patterns that lead to scientific excellence. Is the success of a particular work predictable? Can future individual performance be predicted? Are scientific discoveries more likely in certain countries and/or institutions?

By combining the tools of statistical physics and information science we plan to uncover the predictability and the limits of predictability of scientific success. Our focus is on scientific performance captured at increasing levels of complexity: (i) individual publications, (ii) scientists’ careers, (iii) research institutions. The final goal of our research is to provide theory and tools of potential utility to policy making, from funding decisions to discovering scientific talent.
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New publication in Science:
Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact

TEAM 

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László Barabási
 Director, CCNR

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Yifang Ma
 Researcher, CCNR

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Roberta Sinatra
 Researcher, CCNR

Michael Szell
 Researcher, CCNR

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Alex Vespignani
Director, MOBS Lab

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Matteo Chinazzi
Researcher, MOBS Lab

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Junming Huang
 Researcher, CCNR

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Yasamin Khorramzadeh
 Researcher, CCNR

Kaiyuan Sun
Researcher, MOBS Lab

PAPERS

Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact

Roberta Sinatra, Dashun Wang, Pierre Deville, Chaoming Song, Albert-László Barabási
Science, Vol. 354, Issue 6312 (2016)

doi:10.1126/science.aaf5239
[pdf] [supp. information] [interactive visualization]  [Nature video]

Featured in:  New York Times,  Science News,  Nature News,  The Scientist,  Wired,  Chronicle of Higher Education,  Scientific American,  Forbes
View full list of press coverage here.

Research funding goes to rich clubs

Michael Szell and Roberta Sinatra
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112 48, 14749–14750 (2015)

doi:10.1038/nphys3494
[pdf]

A century of physics

Roberta Sinatra, Pierre Deville, Michael Szell, Dashun Wang, Albert-László Barabási
Nature Physics, 11 791 (2015)

doi:10.1038/nphys3494
[pdf] [cover]
Interactive visualization
by Kim Albrecht et al:
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Click to view
Nature Video 
by Mauro Martino et al:
Click to view
Nature Physics cover
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October 2015

PRESENTATIONS

Science of Science: The Fundamentals of Predictability of Scientific Success

Roberta Sinatra, Alessandro Vespignani, Albert-László Barabási
[pdf]
Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact
New publication in Science:
Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact

Check out our published research paper: Read Full Science Paper (PDF)

[interactive visualization]  [Nature video]

Featured in:  The final goal of our research is to provide theory and tools of potential utility to policy making, from funding decisions to discovering scientific talent.